Apple 4Q Earnings Volatility Preview

Apple is scheduled to report 4Q financial results today after the close. The Street is expecting EPS of $7.24 on revenue of $29.5 biliion. This will be the first post-Steve Jobs earnings report so all eyes will be squarely on Tim Cook and how he approaches providing key information to the financial community. Things to pay close attention on the conference call include: gross margin guidance in the face of increasing competition, macbook sales results, further color on iPhone 4S sales, and iPad commentary. In the Steve Jobs era Apple consistently sandbagged forward guidance, will this practice continue under the Tim Cook regime?

Shares of Apple have averaged a lowly +/-3% move over its last 8 earnings releases. Measured over the entire earnings week, shares of AAPL have averaged a +/-6% move. Using yesterday’s closing prices, an Apple weekly options straddle (420) could be purchased for $24.70 (mid), implying a 6% move, in-line with historical weekly moves. A summary of previous Apple earnings volatility is highlighted in the chart below:

Apple Earnings Volatility Chart

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Philip A. Saunders

Mr. Saunders serves as Mesa’s Vice President of Marketing, bringing with him a wealth of experience in strategic marketing and operations. In this role, Mr. Saunders is responsible for overseeing all marketing activities, utilizing a blend of traditional and digital strategies to enhance brand presence and profitability, managing a multi-million dollar marketing budget across various media platforms, and leading the continued implementation of CRM systems to streamline customer engagement and drive business growth.

October 18, 2011/by Philip A. Saunders

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